Posted on 30 April 2012.
My prediction is still that Hillary Clinton will be the Democrat presidential candidate or the VP candidate for 2012. This has been my prediction since Feb, 2011 (15 months ago).
The Obama strategy of dividing America by gender, by working women vs housewives, by students vs workers, by religion, by wealth, and by race is not working. He will either drop out just before the Democrat convention for personal reasons or will announce Hillary as his running mate.
Obama’s lawyers are conceiving a deal right now to keep future presidents and Congress from looking at his college documents, forged birth certificate, and passports about his citizenship. He is negotiating immunity from prosecution just like done by Nixon and Bill Clinton.
Hillary is the Democrat weapon to Democrats to keep them from losing both the Senate and the White House. The media has been selling her for the last 18 months. The fix is in the works. An Obama loss will lose the Senate on his coat tails. Democrats will do anything to keep from losing either the White House or the Senate. They need to maintain one of them to keep a reversal from happening to all of their agenda for the last 4 years. Union bosses, bankers, and Soros are very concerned … and they control the Democrat party. Obama is raising money and building a campaign organization to hand to Hillary.
These discussions are taking place right now. Hillary and Bill are assessing the situation. Hillary might not do it if she thinks that a Romney/Rubio ticket cannot be beat. Rubio = Catholics (40% of the electorate), Hispanics (12%), youth (20%), and Florida. Obama got 3/4 of the Hispanic and youth votes in 2008. Any loss to either of them is disastrous to him. Rubio will take from both of them and add at least 5 more points to Romney. The Clintons are trying to figure out how many points can Hillary win back for herself from Romney/Rubio as Pres or to help Obama as VP?
Read these polls closely. All of Obama’s strategies are falling apart. Student loans. Fairness. Gas prices. Free Market vs. govt. War on the Catholic Church. Obamacare. War on motherhood. Blaming Bush about the economy. Did you hear Romney’s answer to Obama about the definition of “fairness” and about the state of the economy? Romney is negating every one of Obama’s tactics.
Obama cannot hide behind “fairness” or blame Bush any longer. His divisive strategy is a loser. As said by Romney, Obama had 2009 and 2010 with total control of the House and the Senate, he had 2011 and 2012 with control of the Senate … and what did he do with it? Obama wasted almost 4 years. He divides America rather than unite us.
Look at the trend lines of Romney vs Obama in the following charts to figure out for yourself where this election is going.
If Romney gets to 51% vs Obama in the polls, then Hillary is a done deal … but will she do it if Rubio adds another 5 points to Romney and pushes Romney to 56%. Hillary and Bill are trying to figure out if this is a lost cause.
Read the trend lines on these charts and polls and make up your own mind. Right now, the Democrat power guys see Obama as a bad investment. Goldman Sachs put a million dollars into Obama in 2008. Goldman Sachs is now putting all its money into Romney.
Radio Update: 70 percent Say Working Through College Better Than Student Loans
50% Think More Government Regulation Means Less Fairness
Most Prefer Cutting Mail Delivery to More Subsidies for the Postal Service
44% Blame Government Regulations for Higher Gas Prices
Voters See Free Market, Not Government, As What Made America Great
Virginia Senate: Allen (R) 46%, Kaine (D) 45%
Missouri Senate: Steelman (R) 49%, McCaskill (D) 42%
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney earning 49% of the vote, while President Obama attracts support from 44%. Three percent (3%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another four percent (4%) are undecided.
As the campaign unfolds, the role of government in American society will again be debated. Just 22% of voters believe more government leads to more fairness. Fifty percent (50%) believe increased government regulation leads to less fairness.
The president and Romney have both spoken on the topic of student loans recently, but most Americans think other options should be on the table. Scott Rasmussen’s radio update notes that 70% think it’s better for a student to work through college and take six to eight years to graduate rather than taking student loans. Half (48%) believe student loans drive up the cost of tuition.
A president’s Job Approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s Job Approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 46% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president’s job performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) at least somewhat disapprove.
As the U.S. Supreme Court prepares to hear the federal government’s challenge to Arizona’s immigration law, 59% of voters believe police officers should check the immigration status of those they stop for traffic violations.
Most Americans believe the price of gas could reach $5 a gallon in the next few months. Forty-four percent (44%) believe government regulations are primarily to blame, while 32% point to speculators.
Scott Rasmussen’s radio update for the WOR Radio Network earlier this week noted that only 27% think government investments made America great. A much larger number give credit to the free enterprise system.
Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 24% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -17 (see trends).
Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our “unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy.”
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. Obama’s numbers are almost always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That’s because some of the president’s most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote.
Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 36.1% Republicans, 32.8% Democrats, and 31.1% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly larger advantage for the Republicans.
Partisan affiliation is typically a key indicator in Presidential election years. Over the past 20 years, exit polls have shown the party identification numbers ranging from even to a 7 point Democratic advantage. The Democrats’ best year was 2008 while 2004 showed the best numbers for the GOP.
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